Meridian Trade Advisory
Free download · Excel

The UK CBAM accrual forecaster.

Your import value and product mix in, a quarterly accrual profile out. Built for finance directors of UK importers of steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser and hydrogen who want the shape of the number before HMRC publishes the rate.

  • Annual liability modelled 2027 to 2030, with the free-allocation ramp built in
  • Default versus verified actual emissions data toggle, the single biggest lever on your bill
  • Quarterly accrual profile and cash timing, accrue in 2027, pay May 2028
  • Every assumption editable, run your own rate and volume scenarios
Not sure which goods are caught? Check a commodity code first →

Get the forecaster

Free. We'll also send your updated figures when the UK values publish in the autumn.

We use your details only to send the forecaster, your updated figures when UK values publish, and to respond if you get in touch. See our Privacy Policy.
What it does

The shape of your bill, before the rate exists.

The UK CBAM takes effect in January 2027, but HMRC's rate and default values publish in Autumn 2026. This workbook lets you model the exposure now, on clearly labelled, fully editable assumptions.

01

The ramp, not the first bill

The effective rate roughly doubles between 2027 and 2030 as free allocation phases out, and indirect emissions join from 2029. A small first bill is not a small exposure. The forecaster shows the whole path.

02

Default versus actual

Toggle each product line between default values and verified supplier data, and see what evidencing your suppliers' emissions is actually worth. Most importers will pay the default. It is set high on purpose.

03

Accrual and cash timing

The liability accrues through the year of import, but the 2027 payment lands 31 May 2028, then quarterly. The forecaster separates the accrual profile from the cash call so both are budgeted.

What it is not. The UK rate and default values are not yet published, so this is modelling, not a liability calculation. Every illustrative assumption is highlighted and editable. Your real number needs your customs data at commodity-code level and your suppliers' emissions data, run against the published UK values. Leave your details with the download and Meridian will model your specific exposure at no cost the moment the values land.